| 摘要: |
| 通过运用 MaxEnt 模型和地理信息系统 (ArcGIS) 软件进行建模，对广东杉木 Cunninghamia lanceolata 良种在湖北省相近生态区的适生性进行预测，同时分析影响该引种情况的可能主导气候因子。结果表明：MaxEnt 模型对该杉木良种同一适宜引种生态区的预测精度高，模型预测的训练样本和测试样本 AUC 均值大于 0.7。广东省杉木产区的杉木良种在湖北省的低适生区面积为 1 294 849 hm2，主要分布在：鄂东南的黄梅县、武穴市、蕲春县、阳新县、大冶市、通山县、崇阳县、通城县、咸安区和赤壁市；鄂西南的长阳县、秭归县、兴山县、巴东县、建始县、鹤峰县、恩施市、宣恩县和来凤县。年日最低气温≤ 0.0℃日数、月最长连续降水日数和月最长连续降水量是影响广东省杉木良种适生区分布的主导气候因子。 |
| 关键词: MaxEnt 杉木 良种 引种 |
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| Accurately Predicting the Identical Ecological Distributions for Planting the Superior Seed Varieties of Cunninghamia lanceolata which is Introduced from Guangdong Province in Hubei Province based on MaxEnt Model and ArcGIS Analysis |
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Hu Chao1, Yu Jing2
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1.Management Station of forest tree seedlings of Hubei Provincial Forestry Department Wuhan Hubei;2.Lingnan Eco-cultural Tourism Co,Ltd Wuhan Hubei
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| Abstract: |
| Modeling was performed by MaxEnt and ArcGIS software. This article was to predict the suitability of the superior seed varieties of Cunninghamia lanceolata introduced from Guangdong province in close ecological areas in Hubei province. Meanwhile, it will analyze the possible dominant climate factors that affect this introduction. The result indicates that the MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy for the same ecological zone which is suitable for this introduction, and the average AUC of the training samples and test samples predicted by the model is greater than 0.7. The low suitable regions of this species covered an area of 1 294 849 hectares in Guangdong province and they were mainly distributed in the following areas: Huangmei
county, Wuxue city, Qichun county, Yangxin county, Daye city, Tongshan county, Chongyang county, Tongcheng county, Xian’an district and Chibi city in the Southeast Hubei; Changyang county, Zigui County, Xingshan county, Badong county, Jianshi county, Hefeng county, Enshi city, Xuan’en county and Laifeng county in the Southwest Hubei. Days with annual daily minimum temperature were below 0 ℃ , monthly longest continuous precipitation days and monthly maximum continuous precipitation were dominant climatic factors to determine the suitable
region distributions for the superior seed varieties of C. lanceolata. |
| Key words: MaxEnt ecologic niche model Cunninghamia lanceolata superior variety introduction |
