| 摘要: |
| 红锥 Castanopsis hystrix是我国华南地区重要的珍贵树种，研究红锥自然分布与环境因子之间的关系，对红锥未来的推广具有重要的参考价值。依据数据库及实地调查获得的256个有效红锥分布样点和21个环境数据，应用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）和 ArcGIS 软件对红锥适生区影响因素和空间分布进行分析。结果表明：15 次 MaxEnt 模拟的训练数据和测试数据的 AUC 平均值分别为 0.990 和 0.987，表明结果较为准确，具有很高的参考价值。红锥在全国的适生区主要在广东省、广西自治区、台湾省和四川盆地、湖南省南部、重庆市中部、云南省南部和西藏自治区雅鲁藏布江峡谷以南地区，总面积为49.44 万 km2 。适生区和边缘适生区主要分布在高适生区的外围，以上区域与红锥天然分布区域基本吻合。模拟结果显示最暖月降水量、最冷月平均气温和年平均降水量是影响红锥分布的主要环境因子，最暖月降水量在500 mm以上、最冷月平均气温0 ℃以上、年平均降水量1 500~2 500 mm的地区最适合红锥的生长，可以开展大规模的推广，边缘适生区可以尝试开展引种试验。 |
| 关键词: 最大熵模型 红锥 适生区 环境因子 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2021-12-26修订日期：2022-03-21 |
| 基金项目:广东省林业科技创新项目 (2018KJCX007) |
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| Prediction of Potential Suitable Distribution Areas and Analysis of Dominant Environmental Factors of Castanopsis hystrix Based on MaxEnt Model and ArcGIS |
| Xu Fang,YANG Xiaohui,Panwen,liao huanqin,zhang weihua,yang huixiao,chen xinyu,ye longhua |
| (Guangdong Academy of Forestry) |
| Abstract: |
| Castanopsis hystrix is an important and precious tree species in South China. Studying the
relationship between the natural distribution and environment factors would provide important reference for the future promotion of C. hystrix. Based on the 256 distribution locations and 26 environmental data obtained from the database and field survey, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and ArcGIS software were used to analyze the inflfluence factors and spatial distribution of the suitable distribution area. The results show that the average AUC of the training set and test set of 15 MaxEnt simulations are 0.990 and 0.987, respectively, indicating that the simulations are relatively accurate and have high reference value. The suitable distribution areas for C. hystrix in China are mainly in Guangdong, Guangxi, Taiwan and the Sichuan Basin, southern Hunan, central Chongqing, southern Yunnan and the area south of the Yarlung Zangbo River Gorge in Tibet, with a total area over 494 400 km2 . The suitable distribution areas and marginal suitable distribution areas are mainly distributed in the periphery of the highly suitable distribution areas, and the above areas are basically consistent with the natural distribution areas of C. hystrix. The simulation results show that the warmest month’s precipitation, the coldest month’s average temperature, and the annual average precipitation are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of C. hystrix. The warmest month’s precipitation above 500 mm, the coldest month’s average temperature above 0 ℃ , and the annual average areas with a rainfall of 1 500-2 500 mm are most suitable for the growth of C. hystrix, and large-scale promotion can be carried out in these area. In the marginal suitable distribution areas, introduction experiments can be tried. |
| Key words: MaxEnt Castanopsis hystrix suitable distribution areas environmental factors |
