| 摘要: |
| 以低纬高原城市昆明市为研究区域，利用昆明市近30年（1978—2015）的年平均气温数据，采用回归分析、滑动平均法和Mann-Kendall检验法分析昆明地区气温的年代际变化以及跃变；采用趋势拟合和相关分析，分析年平均气温与城市人口、GDP、建成区面积3项城市发展指标之间的关系。研究结果表明:（1）近30年来，昆明市的年平均气温呈波动上升趋势，增温率为0.55 ℃/10 a。（2）通过滑动平均法检测出昆明的气温跃变年份为1992年，通过Mann-Kendall突变检验得昆明的气温跃变年份为1994年，即昆明气温跃变时间为20世纪90年代初。（3）昆明各项城市发展指标都与气温变化成呈相关关系，表明它们与昆明气温变化关系密切。总的来说，人口和建成区面积是城市气温变化最主要的驱动因素，GDP也具有重要影响。 |
| 关键词: 城市化 低纬高原城市 气温跃变 城市热环境 |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金“数据随机分布下的森林碳储量空间动态研究”(31800537),云南省万人计划青年拔尖人才项目(80201438)第一 |
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| Climate Change in Kunming and Its Driving Factors |
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Liu Chang,LIU Xincen,FU Yao,JIANG Fen1
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1.Forestry College,Southwest Forestry University,Yunnan,Kunming;2.Sch Geog and Resource, Yuxi Normal University
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| Abstract: |
| In this article, based on the annual mean air temperature data of Kunming in recent 30 years (1978-2015), the regression analysis, the running mean and the Mann-Kendall test were employed to study the interannual variation and the jumping of the air temperature in Kunming. The trend-fitting and correlation analysis were adopted to study the relations between annual mean air temperature and 3 urban development indicators, including urban population, GDP, built-up area. Based on the research work above, we concluded that (1) during the recent 30-year period, the annual mean air temperature in Kunming region has been on an ascending fluctuating trend, the increasing rate of temperature is 0.55 ℃/10 a. (2) Running mean method detected that the air temperature jumping point occurred in 1992 in Kunming, Mann-Kendall method detected that the air temperature jumping point was found in 1994 in Kunming. That is, the early 1990s was the jumping point of air temperature in Kunming. (3) There was a correlation between all the indicators for urban development and the change of air temperature, which means that all the indicators were closely related to the air temperature change in Kunming. In all the indicators, the population and built-up area are the most important driving factors of urban air temperature change, while the GDP also has a significant impact on it. |
| Key words: urbanization low-latitude plateau city temperature jump urban thermal environment |
