| 摘要: |
| 气候变化模型模拟是预测未来气候因子变化的有效方式之一。本文利用CCSM3大气环流模型，模拟并预测了广东省1980-2099年月平均温度和月降水量多边形格网shape数据。并使用ArcGIS软件统计每个格网每年的平均温度和年降水量，再通过统计所有格网的均值，得到整个广东省的年平均温度和降水量。通过比较2000-2099年五个阶段（每20年为一个阶段）与1980-1999年的数据差值，分析未来的温度降水变化趋势。进而利用基于气候的Miami NPP估算模型，分析了广东省过去及未来NPP变化趋势。结果显示未来广东省温度呈显著升高趋势，表明未来广东省气候变暖明显加快，而且年际间存在较大起伏；年降水量总体也呈现缓慢上升趋势，未来89年中也将出现降水极大和极小年，发生旱灾和洪灾的频率增加；NPP的主要影响因子为降水，NPP变化趋势也基本与降水趋势一致，T-test检验结果表明2089-2099年降水显著高于1980-1999年的降水（P < 0.05），而其它时段差异不显著。 |
| 关键词: 温度 降水 NPP 广东省 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:广东省林业局项目“广东省森林生态效益监测站建设与研究”; 广东省林业科技创新专项“森林生态效能与碳汇计量监测技术研究与示范（2010KJCX012 01）”。 |
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| Prediction on the future temperature，precipitation terrestrial NPP of Guangdong province |
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liuzhiyong
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| Abstract: |
| It is an effect way to predict the future climate change by Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Using CCSM3 model, we predicted the average monthly temperature and monthly precipitation of Guangdong Province between 1980 and 2099 based on the grid data. The average annual temperature and annual precipitation of each grid was calculated by ArcGIS software, and further we got the average temperature and precipitation of the entire Guangdong Province through the statistical analysis. By comparing the data of five periods in 2000-2099 (20 years for each period) and that in 1980-1999, we analyzed the trends of the future precipitation and temperature. In this study, we also analyzed both the past and future NPP based on Miami model for the Guangdong Province. The result showed that the temperature would increase significantly with big fluctuations between years, indicating that the apparent future climate warming in Guangdong Province speed up, Precipitation presented in a slow upward trend, and the next 89 years would occur in the maximum and minimum rainfall, indicating the occurrence of the increased frequency of droughts and floods. The result indicated that the rainfall would be the main factor affecting NPP. NPP and precipitation shared almost the same trend. T-Test showed that the annual precipitation in 2089-2099 was significantly higher than that in 1980-1999 (P < 0.05), while precipitation in the other periods did not show a significant difference. |
| Key words: Temperature, Precipitation, NPP, Guangdong Province |
